基于机器学习的斜坡堤越浪量预测方法研究

针对斜坡堤越浪量预测方法,分别建立集成神经网络(ensemble neural network,ENN)、随机森林(random for-eset,RF)和支持向量回归机(suppport vector regression,SVR)3种机器学习模型对斜坡堤越浪量进行预测,并利用决定系数R2和均方根误差RMSE来评估模型性能.最后,对3种模型的性能进行分析.结果显示,集成神经网络模型的决定系数R2和均方根误差RM S E分别约为0.96和0.0018,随机森林模型的决定系数R2和均方根误差RMSE分别约为0.97和0.0014,支持向量回归机模型的决定系数R2和均方根误差RMSE分别约为0.94和0.002.对比发现,3种模型的决定系数都达到0.9以上,都具有较高的预测精度,随机森林相比其他两个模型精度更高.     

人力资源柔性研究现状及其在中国商业银行实践新思考

通过理论基础、维度与测量、影响因素、组织绩效影响等4个方面对人力资源柔性研究现状做文献研究述评,并基于此提出研究与实践新方向,提出本土国情下中国商业银行人力资源柔性、创新能力以及创新实践的测量体系,探讨人力资源柔性与创新能力以及创新实践之间的影响关系,充分考虑外部环境对上述关系的影响,提出中国商业银行业务创新实践的概念模型。该模型有助于拓展人力资源柔性理论的实证研究,并基于研究成果深入剖析适合中国商业银行发展的人力资源柔性管理模式。     

Internal green integration and environmental performance: The predictive power of proactive environmental strategy,greening the supplier,and environmental collaboration with the supplier

The effect of proactive environmental strategies (PES) on corporate performance has been debated extensively among academics; however, the significance of the pathway of those strategies—internal green integration (IGI) through greening the supplier (GTS) and environmental collaboration with suppliers (ECS)—remains undecided. This study examines environmental performance (EP) through GTS, IGI, and ECS. It also examines the direct link between PES and IGI. A conceptual framework was designed following a rigorous review of the literature. A survey questionnaire was used to collect cross-sectional data from a random sample of manufacturing firms, obtaining 196 usable samples. Using AMOS, the structural equal modeling found a positive and significant impact of PES on IGI. Significant predictors of EP were GTS, IGI, and ECS. The findings of the study can provide managers with guidelines for dealing with business and environmental concerns. They can also contribute to creating strategies for environmental protection and management and reducing adverse effects on the environment. Finally, by examining the direct links between GTS, ECS, and EP, particularly in a developing context, the study may contribute to the literature of environmental policy.     

权力义务视角下完善向基层赋权的思考

2010年开始,向基层赋权作为行政体制改革的重要内容在全国范围铺开。从权力义务视角对其进行研究有现实的必要性。赋权的核心是行政权力的转移,以权力转移过程中涉及的诸要素为切入点,可以分析出多重权力关系和有关主体在其中的权力义务。在此基础上,通过保障行政相对人对于赋权的参与权、设计上级行政机关实施赋权的制度、消除上级行政机关赋权的依据问题和设计基层行政机关行使权力的制度等方式完善向基层赋权,既使行政机关能够有效推进行政体制改革,又能对行政权进行有效规范、保障行政相对人权利。     

基于VAR模型探究BDI和燃油价格的相互影响

燃油价格近期受疫情影响出现剧烈波动,国际干散货航运市场也受到巨大影响。基于Clarksons官方数据库1992年1月至2020年4月相关数据,进行实证研究发现,国际燃油价格的暴跌对波罗的海干散货运价指数的下降有着显著的正向影响;燃油价格虽然也在一定程度上受到BDI的影响,但存在一定的滞后性。这有利于干散货运输公司根据燃油价格波动预测运价指数的变化趋势,从而采取多样的方式应对冲击。也对保障干散货运输市场的稳定发展有重要意义。     

An integrated approach to the purchase decision making process of food-delivery apps: Focusing on the TAM and AIDA models

The study employed two theories, the technology acceptance model (TAM) and the Attention-Interest-Desire-Action (AIDA) model, to provide an understanding of the process of consumers accepting an on-demand food-delivery app, and to establish the effect of marketing communication on outcomes related to consumer behavior. A conceptual model and hypotheses were developed by combining the key constructs of the two models to predict behavioral intentions. Findings revealed the attention and interest in the AIDA model related strongly to the salient behavioral beliefs of TAM, perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use. Thus, it can be concluded that marketing communication acts as an external element in the process of accepting new innovations. Besides, it was confirmed that attitude towards the adoption of new technology acts as a mediator that promotes desire for the app. From the disciplines of information system and marketing communication, the study suggests an innovative approach to incorporating models.     

秦迁陵县粮仓设置体系探讨--以出粮机构粮食来源问题为中心

除仓官外,秦迁陵县内的出粮机构还包括田官、离乡及司空等。它们并非都建有独立粮仓,所出粮食的来源也不尽一致。田官不设粮仓,它的出粮地是公共粮仓中的一间专属仓房。离乡建有供应该乡粮食开支的独立粮仓,且粮仓数量与该乡人口规模有关。小乡可能仅有一座粮仓,故有时会产生因储备不足而需要仓官额外输粮的问题。司空、发弩及■舍三者既未建有独立粮仓,也不如田官那般在公共粮仓内占有一间仓房,它们向外供应的粮食全都是由仓官转输。总之,秦迁陵县内设置的粮仓包括县级公共粮仓和离乡粮仓两类。田官、司空、发弩及舍虽承担了部分出粮职能,但并未给县内粮仓体系带来影响。     

A new assessment of economic integration in East Asia: Application of an industry-specific G-PPP model

It is well known that intra-industry trade and cross-border production networks have promoted economic growth and regional integration in East Asia. However, regional supply and production chains may have been formed differently across industries, reflecting different degrees and a different scope of regional economic linkages at an industry level. This paper makes a threefold contribution. First, to assess industry-level differences, this study adopts the generalized purchasing power parity (G-PPP) model using industry-specific producer prices. Second, the momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) model is employed to allow for possible nonlinearity arising from the dynamic nature of regional economic growth and development. Third, the Granger causality test is also conducted to assess whether regional economies have autonomously integrated. The empirical results reveal that economic integration has progressed more autonomously in the electrical industry, as well as in the transportation equipment industry, as China and the ASEAN countries have become the final destination markets for finished products in these two industries.     

Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies

The recent COVID-19 crisis has revealed the urgent need to study the impact of an infectious disease on market economies and provide adequate policy recommendations. The present paper studies the optimal lockdown policy in a dynamic general equilibrium model where households are altruistic and they care about the share of infected individuals. The spread of the disease is modeled here using SIS dynamics, which implies that recovery does not confer immunity. To avoid non-convexity issues, we assume that the lockdown is constant in time. This strong assumption allows us to provide analytical solutions. We find that the zero lockdown is efficient when agents do not care about the share of infected, while a positive lockdown is recommended beyond a critical level of altruism. Moreover, the lockdown intensity increases in the degree of altruism. Our robust analytical results are illustrated by numerical simulations, which show, in particular, that the optimal lockdown never trespasses 60% and that eradication is not always optimal.     

The mechanism of credit risk contagion among internet P2P lending platforms based on a SEIR model with time-lag

The credit risk contagion of Internet peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms is an important part of Internet financial risk management and supervision. This study analyzes the contagion path of credit risk in Internet P2P lending. Based on complex network theory and the theory of infectious disease dynamics, the characteristics of Internet P2P lending development are combined to construct a SEIR model of credit risk transmission among Internet P2P lending platforms with time lag, and the robustness of the model is analyzed and proven. The influence of platform correlations, the susceptible immune rate, the platform elimination rate, contagion latency, the saturation coefficient, and the susceptibility input rate on credit risk contagion behavior among Internet P2P lending platforms is analyzed, using the equilibrium point and threshold value. The impact of each variable is analyzed by simulation. Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to prevent and control credit risk contagion among these platforms.